Michael Collins
Dr. Caitlin Tenison
Kevin Gluck
Dr. John Anderson
Models of learning and retention make predictions of human performance based on the interaction of cognitive mechanisms with temporal features such as the number of repetitions, time since last presentation, and item spacing. These features have been shown to consistently influence performance across a variety of domains. Typically omitted from these accounts are the changes in cognitive process and key mechanisms used by people while acquiring a skill. Here we integrate a model of skill acquisition (Tenison & Anderson, 2016) with the Predictive Performance Equation (PPE; Walsh, Gluck, Gunzelmann, Jastrzembski, & Krusmark, 2019) using Bayesian change detection (Lee, 2019). Our results show this allows for both better representation of an individual’s performance during training and improved out-of-sample prediction.